Report | ASEAN State of Climate Change Report
摘要
《东盟气候变化状况报告》（ASCCR）全面展望了东盟地区气候变化问题的发展状况。ASCCR也是一份前瞻性报告，考虑到东盟的发展背景和《巴黎协定》的长期目标，其中包括关于向2030年和2050年过渡以适应和减缓的建议。
讨论了东盟地区面临的挑战以及东盟目前对《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）和《巴黎协定》（PA）作出贡献的承诺。认识到在满足增强透明度框架（ETF）下的报告要求和实现PA目标的雄心壮志方面取得进展的双重挑战，即与工业化前水平相比，将全球平均气温上升限制在远低于2摄氏度（°C），最好是1.5°C，该报告开发了一种方法来评估当前的行动进展以及到2030年和2050年加强这些行动的必要性，其概念是"透明度"和"转换"。
此外，报告还介绍了东盟地区与温室气体排放相关的发展环境的现状和前景、气候变化的影响及其脆弱性，以及气候变化的适应和减缓措施。该报告还提供了可行的目标和途径，以制定东盟到2050年的气候行动愿景，实现巴勒斯坦权力机构的目标，并在该地区开展实现这一愿景所需的相关行动。
建议采取一套不同的区域适应和减缓行动，分为四类（"熟人"，与透明度有关;"熟人"，与透明度有关;"整合";"参与";和"激励"，与转型有关），东盟成员国（AMS）在未来十年的优先事项，同时还建议采取2030-2050年的基本行动。因此，ASCCR说明了到2030年和2050年的必要措施，如果这些措施与充分增强的能力相结合，它们将增加实现保护区适应和减缓目标的可行性，包括在21世纪下半叶尽早实现温室气体净零排放。
至于总体对策，适应和减缓行动应尽可能协同作用，特别是在实地执行做法的一级。这将有助于确保解决方案具有成本效益，并提高社会福祉。例子包括气候智能型农业和基于自然的解决方案（NbS），包括基于生态系统的适应（EbA），如农林业，保护红树林，以及通过认证和"减少森林砍伐和森林退化造成的排放"（REDD +）来加强森林管理，这有助于增加森林碳储量。适当的水电水库管理还将保护当地社区免受河流洪水和其他极端事件的影响，同时有助于减缓气候变化。此外，"经气候保护"的能源基础设施，如发电机、电网和相关建筑物，如果纳入了适当的缓解和适应措施，就需要将其安置或重新安置在受气候变化影响较小的地方，以维持其减缓和适应协同作用。
为了应对COVID-19大流行，资金流动需要支持绿色和有弹性的复苏。财政支出还可以帮助撬动私人融资，同时利用区域/国际资金也至关重要。通过为技术开发和传播以及人类能力建设以促进发展和气候变化干预，资金将是实现与巴勒斯坦权力机构适应和减缓目标的途径相一致的复苏的关键。为了确保和调动公共和私人资金，东盟从COVID-19中可持续和有弹性复苏的计划（例如东盟综合复苏框架）需要整合绿色复苏和公正转型战略，其中包括具体计划，以重新培训劳动力，并协助与清洁能源，气候智能型农业和可持续森林管理相关的行业顺利再就业。
在适应气候变化方面，无论减缓进展如何，AMS都非常容易受到气候变化的影响。东盟地区已经经历了重大的气候变化影响，极端天气事件的强度和规模越来越大，经济、环境和社会破坏也在增加。未来的气候变化影响将破坏数十年的发展进展，因此该地区需要优先考虑弹性和适应干预措施。
本区域在与适应气候变化和减少灾害风险有关的若干领域取得了稳步进展。重要的是，本区域与气候变化适应（CCA）和减少灾害风险有关的政策和体制环境处于这一改进的最前沿，为有力地实施共同国家评估和减少灾害风险创造了良好的有利环境。虽然国家政策和体制一级的进展值得赞扬，但这一进展需要渗透到基层。基于社区的减少灾害风险计划正在实施，但共同国家评估也需要在这一级实施。需要迅速将权力下放给地方机构，以便为它们提供必要的自主权，以采取适合当地情况的适应行动，同时在地方政府一级加速加强能力。
在科学和技术方面，一些综合性援助在加强气候变化预测、缩小预测、气候变化风险评估和脆弱性评估方面，特别是在水资源和农业等优先部门，取得了良好进展。然而，这些规模尚未扩大到特定河流流域和部门之外，并扩大到该区域其他地区。在气候变化风险评估、适应规划、气候智能型农业等方面取得重大进展的国家完全有能力与AMS的其他部门分享这一专业知识。本报告确定了区域合作的领域，以及合作取得成功需要什么样的有利环境。
由于与本区域的AFOLU/土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业部门有关的具体事项，基于自然的解决办法和对自然资本的投资为有复原力的生计和可持续适应提供了重要的切入点。需要承认和促进整个区域的地方和土著对气候适应的了解，需要在规划、决策和管理等不同阶段及早考虑和纳入不同部门的适应问题。
这些建议可以为东盟气候变化工作组（AWGCC）制定本区域气候变化合作计划提供良好的基础，包括与其他部门机构、合作伙伴以及地方当局和社区的合作计划。预期针对上述方面的执行计划将加强从地方到区域各级的适应能力和复原力。
Concerning mitigation, AMS have proactively taken measures in the areas of GHG inventory and monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) for GHG emissions and reductions and sector policy planning in the course of developing their nationally determined contributions (NDC). A key challenge is how to raise the level of ambition of the NDCs and related long-term national strategies and policies. To do so, it is vital to strengthen the science and information base with novel technologies related to, but not limited to, digital transformation (DX), which directly contributes to enhancing transparency of climate change interventions at local, national and regional levels. Capacity building in preparation for the national reporting requirements under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) and regionallevel tracking exercises/systems on GHG emissions and near- to long-term climate change interventions are expected to promote science-policy integration and thus drive transformation of the socioeconomic systems. This is dependent on appropriate management, along with efforts for multi-stakeholder engagement and substantial incentives and assistance with regard to finance and technology. Modelling capacity development for long-term projections on mitigation measures all the way through to 2050 and beyond is a vital requirement for developing regional/national long-term strategies toward net-zero GHG emissions.
Developing a long-term mitigation strategy for ASEAN will be key to informing and guiding sectoral and cross-sectoral policy planning in AMS in line with the pathway towards the PA goals. Stepping stones to frame the future ASEAN community include not only clean energy transition involving the sectors of power, industry, transport and buildings, but also the transition of the land-use system in the AFOLU/LULUCF sector based on NbS. In the energy sector, there is an ASEAN near-term energy target for renewable energy (RE) expansion and energy intensity reduction until 2025, but after that, the future course of actions to be taken by AMS is not necessarily informed by the PA goals but is more based on current policy trends. An ASEAN-wide collective long-term vision and/or target may encourage AMS to explore more ambitious emission reduction measures in a cost-effective manner by sharing knowledge and experience on best practices and emerging mechanisms, such as effective carbon pricing and RE trading via the ASEAN regional power grid. In the AFOLU/LULUCF sector, national development and mitigation strategies and plans need to prioritise REDD+ programmes, or more broadly sustainable forest management, thus enabling interventions to resolve the root causes of deforestation such as population pressure and expansion of agricultural areas affected by global supply chain of agricultural/forestry products.
Climate change mitigation through switching to renewable/low-carbon energy produces multiple co-benefits including improving access to electricity, enhancing energy security, providing local green jobs, reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution, and improving development potential. Actions to pursue co-benefits, such as combatting local air pollution, will expand the possibilities for substantial climate actions in the short and long run.
For the transition to net-zero energy and land systems, it is important to distinguish “transient” technologies that will be diminished or ultimately phased out and technologies that will keep playing a central role in achieving netzero emissions, such as RE, taking into account national circumstances. Various sectoral technology options for decarbonisation need to be assessed with proper methodologies, including modelling frameworks that can show the pathway beyond 2050. Such technologies include, but are not limited to, RE (solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, etc.) with battery and enhanced grid systems, high energy efficiency appliances, bioenergy (waste and primary resources), decarbonising technologies for industry, electric or hydrogen-related mobility (land, aviation, and shipping), materials with lower lifecycle GHG emissions, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, sustainable forest management options, and afforestation and reforestation. In formulating a regional vision or strategy, it will be important to take into account trends in the global and regional markets of low- and zero-carbon technologies, cost reduction trends, and multiple co-benefits that will contribute to the long-term sustainable development of the ASEAN region.
Regarding energy transition, trade-offs between energy intensity reduction and emission intensity reduction need to be recognised and reflected in ASEAN’s energy and climate strategies. The level of ambition of the energy mix, which is related to emission intensity reduction, is farther from the PA target trajectory than the demand-side ambition as measured by energy intensity reduction. In addition, energy supply and demand and GHG emissions need to be tracked (e.g. on a per-capita basis) to steadily plan and implement mitigation actions in the context of the different levels of economic development among the AMS. Enhancement or reshaping of national RE policies and implementation is needed, and the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC)’s RE target of 23% in total primary energy supply by 2025 is critical for the transition through 2030 and on to 2050.
Looking ahead all the way through 2030 and on to 2050, the following bullet points show prioritised actions at the regional level over the next 10 years, which are expected to be incorporated into and linked with the regional climate change actions plans and national/local policy frameworks in each AMS. It should be noted that the table only shows the top three actions for each group of AIIM (Acquaint−Integrate−Involve−Motivate) actions. The other prioritised actions for each group are elaborated further in the report. The Acquaint group of actions mostly aims to enhance transparency of climate actions, while the other three groups of actions (i.e. Integrate, Involve and Motivate) basically contribute to promoting transformation and raising the level of climate ambitions.
Adaptation
Actions to promote transparency of adaptation
Acquaint
1. Promote risk and vulnerability assessment as a basis for adaptation planning
2. Develop best practice guidelines and roadmap for diffusion of adaptation technologies
3. Strengthen the scientific information base
Actions to promote transformation of adaptation to achieve increased ambition
Integrate
1. Mainstream adaptation into sectoral and development planning
2. Promote adaptation and mitigation co-benefits
3. Develop regional, national and local adaptation plans
Involve
1. Sustain actions through public-private-people partnerships (PPPP)
2. Promote multi-stakeholder processes
3. Promote regional cooperation on adaptation
Motivate
1. Set adaptation goals
2. Develop climate risk transfer system
3. Enhance technology diffusion on adaptation.
Mitigation
Actions to promote transparency of mitigation
Acquaint
1. Strengthen the scientific information base
2. Enhance collaboration on co-benefits research and actions
3. Establish a knowledge centre hub on MRV for ASEAN and AMS
Actions to promote transformation of mitigation to achieve increased ambition
Integrate
1. Adopt an interdisciplinary approach for combating air pollution
2. Accelerate regional power interconnectivity to promote RE in the region
3. Promote green recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic
Involve
1. Establish networks, groups of scientists, and communities of practice for mitigation
2. Promote regional cooperation on mitigation through specific regional activities/frameworks
3. Promote education and awareness raising for clean technology diffusion at all levels
Motivate
1. Set long-term mitigation goals/targets and roadmaps at regional, national and local levels
2. Facilitate mitigation planning including addressing sectoral challenges
3. Enhance access to international mitigation finance
Regarding adaptation, the Acquaint group of actions includes promoting risk and vulnerability assessments, and strengthening scientific information base, and thus this group provides an important base for science-based decision making in the region. Similarly, the Motivate group of actions, including setting adaptation goals, finance, and reskilling the workforce, provides impetus to stakeholders to engage in the Involve group of actions. Further, the Integrate group of actions such as formulating adaptation plans enables to integrate all synergistic activities and achieve a harmonious adaptation progression in the region.
Regarding mitigation, the Acquaint group of actions, such as strengthening the information base, tracking regional progress towards the PA long-term goal, and strengthening modelling capacity for long-term projections, provides a basis for science-based decision-making in the region. The Involve group of actions will connect science with policymaking by facilitating science-policy integration and multi-stakeholder involvement. The Integrate group of actions such as integration of mitigation with air pollution prevention, RE promotion through the ASEAN Power Grid, and green recovery, expand opportunities to reap co-benefits across various strategies in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary manner. The Motivate group of actions include long-term mitigation goals, business innovation, finance and carbon pricing, afforestation programmes, technology development and diffusion, and reskilling of the workforce (just transition) and as such, this group accelerates transformative actions at the regional and national levels toward achieving net-zero GHG emissions.
The AIIM group of actions at the regional level explores key opportunities to accelerate the sectoral transitions for both adaptation and mitigation. Regional-level AIIM actions also aim to contribute to upgrading current national policies and/ or establishing new policies, whether sectoral or cross-sectoral, since the proposed multidimensional transformation is largely led by the enhancement and redesign of national policies.
By around 2030, and forging ahead to 2050, ASEAN will need to change/strengthen the intensity of the AIIM group of actions to stay on track toward the PA goals for adaptation and mitigation as elaborated comprehensively in the report. Enhancement, deepening and coordination of regional, national and local policy will be done by taking advantage of socioeconomic development achieved by all actions related to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and by seriously considering the trends in the global and regional markets of technologies on clean and resilient energy, climate smart agriculture and sustainable forest management.
In conclusion, the prioritised regional actions for adaptation and mitigation will contribute to upgrading and redesigning AMS’ national policy frameworks, effectively changing the flow of finance, diffusing relevant technologies, reshaping the market and local community, and transforming entire society toward the direction of the PA goals. Going forward, while meeting a variety of development needs unique to each AMS, ASEAN aims to operationalise the collective adaptation and mitigation potential of the region for climate-friendly and resilient economic transformation toward 2050 and beyond.
Source: IGES，Institute for Global Environmental Stategies
